Aaron Hartley


Belarus Vibecheck


From My Thoughts, 17/08/20

So the protests in Belarus are very interesting, you have what seems on the outside to be a protest againt a right-wing dictator with tactics such as strikes being employed and the police cracking down heavily on the protesters, would seem to the inexperienced viewer that we should support the people of Belarus in their struggle, however the situation is unfortunately a bit deeper than that.

I mean you saw a general strike being called in Ukraine during Euro-maiden[1] as well and we know how well that turned out.

Let’s start with Lukashenko himself, he took power in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union and did basically the opposite of what every new governments did in the FRMR Eastern Bloc, he didn’t privatise stuff. We see that while every other country was getting owned economically ( aka Shock Doctrined) he decided to not do that and instead focus on preserving the industry of Belarus and he did that by keeping it under government ownership, basically he was a Social Democrat when neoliberalsim was the Soup of the Day, this was a successful policy insofar as it avoided much of the hardship that fell on other FRMR Soviet-Sphere countries. Now while his economics were a cut above everyone else, they still leave a lot to be desired as a communist and socially he is bad of course, meeting the gay German Foreign Minister’s accusation that he was “The last Dictator in Europe” with “Better to be a dictator than gay” and on another occasion saying “I can forgive lesbians but not gay men”. So while he is economically better than the other Eastern European leaders, who kamakaiszed their countries into the deep end of capitalism, surely at least a result of the protests could be the implementation of a more socially progressive regime, right? Well probably not

The protests seem to be at the top a neoliberal thing with state owned industry directors being wannabe oligarchs and supporting the protests[2] with obvious worker discontent playing into it, you can’t get people on the streets over nothing, but I mean as we saw in Ukraine it is just people being unhappy with how things are and wanting change, usually without politics, and if you stand for nothing you will fall for anything so whoever is strongest will get the most support by almost default, so who is the most organised groups in these FRMR USSR countries? The Football Ultras.

Strange I know but hear me out, militant, orgainsed, dedicated and with nothing to lose, you could find no better revolutionary force out there, especially in Belarus where Dinamo Minsk fans who are the main right-wing Ultras are heavily anti-Lukashenko and clash with riot police all the time[3], in times like these those are the guys the average protester is gonna look to when they see that they don’t get beaten by the police that they know how to out maneuver. We saw this in Ukraine with both Right Sector and, more importantly Azov getting drawing their roots mostly from football Ultras, but speaking of Azov, there is more than just good ‘ole homegrown fascism, just like mammy used to make it, at play here, you also have the international fascism.

The Avoz have this policy called the "intermarium" (between two seas) Union which is basically an alliance, to counter the EU and Russia, of all the countries between the Baltic and the Black Sea which includes Ukraine of course but also Poland, the Baltic etc[4]. Basically most of what we would call “Eastern Europe”, and of course, Belarus. And now like this is one of their main policies so they are gonna obvs try and pursue it because if you have to hand at least one thing to these lads, they put in the work, I mean you don’t get to be a fascist paramilitary that makes up a large chunk of the official Ukraine Army who gets a bunch new Armour and equipment of the gov if you aren’t willing to do stuff to get the people in power to yield. So these lads are training fascists in all these Eastern Bloc countries or working with the governments with the end goal of a third positioning union of fascists from sea to shining sea. Thing is as well it’s not just in Europe they are training people, it’s worldwide.[5][6]

All this means that, by far, the right is the most prepared group to gain prominence in Belarus off the back of these protests, so for people who say "we shouldn't be against people's movements, it can go any which way" I say, no it probably can't and hoping it does is like playing Russian roulette with 6 bullets in the chamber but you just hope that factory fucked up and when the hammer hits it turns out to be a dud, as much as Lukashenko is almost certainly a bit of a bastard, I’d pick him over a Nazi any day of the week. It’s unfortunate that that is seemingly the choice being presented to the Belorussian people as well.

[1] https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2013/12/2/7004262/
[2] https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1294650430350401538
[3] https://belarusdigest.com/story/belarusian-ultras-and-the-regime/
[4] https://www.foiaresearch.net/organization/intermarium-support-group
[5] https://www.rferl.org/a/azov-ukraine-s-most-prominent-ultranationalist-group-sets-its-sights-on-u-s-europe/29600564.html (Radio Free Europe so read sceptically)
[6] https://libya360.wordpress.com/2020/06/13/azov-international-and-the-global-intermarium-revival/